A Look Back: Iraq Was Never a Threat

November 11th, 2008 | No Comments | Posted in Intelligence, terrorism

This Article details how the US came to the conclusion that Iraq was a threat concerning weapons of mass destruction and how and why an over zealous Bush administration led the US to this extremely expensive multi-year Occupation in Iraq.

To the surprise of few, the head of the Central Intelligence Agency-led survey group hunting for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq had admitted in one of his reports that none have yet been unearthed.

But the Iraq Survey Group’s leader, David Kay, did say that Saddam Hussein “remained firmly committed to acquiring nuclear weapons”. However, they have not found any, nor any evidence of any.

The report will come as more bad news for President George W Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair, who are under increasing pressure from their American and British constituencies for allegedly “cooking” or exaggerating the threat posed by Saddam as a pretext for going to war against him.

And now confirmed reports from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which says that information provided by the Iraqi National Congress (INC) about Iraq’s weapon’s programs was exaggerated and false.

Two DIA agents currently serving in Iraq, who also voiced bitterness about other aspects of US Iraq policy, spoke on condition of anonymity to Asia Times Online. The first, a 30-year veteran of the agency, complained that “the fixation on weapons is alienating intelligence staff”, calling it an “obsession”.

Officials in Washington now confirm that former Iraqi officials who had defected and were handed over to the CIA by the INC, the exile opposition group led by Chalabi, provided them with information on Iraq’s WMD program, which the Bush administration relied on to press its case for war.

In Iraq, this was confirmed by the same DIA agent. “The statements on WMD that the INC guys brought in matched conclusions they [Bush cabinet members] already had. We looked at the info and said ‘you can’t be serious, you have got to be kidding’.”

There has been an increase in the willingness of intelligence officials from the CIA and DIA to speak out about their skepticism over Iraq WMD claims since the end of the war and the failure to discover any evidence of their existence. Former UN weapons inspector Hans Blix also recently asserted that Iraq had had no chemical or biological program since 1998, and no nuclear program since the first Gulf war of 1991.

The DIA agent went on to say, in Chalabi’s defense that “there were plenty of good reasons to attack Iraq, human rights, dictatorship, but the impetus to attack was the immediacy of a threat. Without Chalabi and his access to the Pentagon through [former CIA chief James] Woolsey and then [Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul] Wolfowitz, [Vice President Dick] Cheyney, [Pentagon head Donald] Rumsfeld and [Under Secretary of Defense Douglas J ] Feith the war wouldn’t have happened. The INC was very good at manipulating the press. They would say, ‘look at this, look at this’, and [New York Times reporter] Judy Miller would go to Baghdad and chase down a guy and her information provided the lever to go to war.”

This DIA agent, who has served as an interrogator at Camp X-Ray in Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, where the US holds alleged terrorists from Afghanistan called “illegal combatants”, also rejected claims still alleged by the vice president that there was a relationship between Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda and Saddam’s regime in Iraq. “There were four Iraqis in Guantanamo. More people had British passports than Iraqi ones.”

Now serving in Iraq as a security expert, the DIA agent criticized post-war policy as well, referring to what he described as “the coalition’s pursuit of a single point panacea with a semblance of political organization to hand over the country to them”, meaning the undue trust placed in Chalabi’s organization, as well as Iyad Alawi’s Iraqi National Accord. He also did not mince words with the staff of the office of the Coalition Provisional Administration (CPA), headed by L Paul Bremer. He viewed Bremer’s young staff as immature and inexperienced, citing the case where an aide to Bremer did not want to issue weapons licenses for a political organization to provide for its security,”she’s worried about issuing a few weapons licenses when they have whole armies”.

He added that Bremer’s predecessor Jay Garner was unfairly maligned due to inflated expectations. “Garner was friendly, approachable and personable. He got scapegoated by impatient people in DC. Now its DC politics and ‘what’s your stance on Israel’?” He also strongly criticized Bremer’s decision to dismiss all 400,000 members of the Iraqi army. “It was a dogmatic and ideological brain fart idea to dissolve the military. They should have used them for security. They should have issued an order mobilizing the regular army and put them on highways.” He ended his litany by adding that there was not even any cable television in the al-Rashid hotel where CPA staff were housed and they had to rely on short wave radio for news “they want to keep CPA staff as ignorant as possible”.

A lieutenant-colonel in the DIA who specialized in terrorism and the Muslim world also ridiculed the claims connecting Iraq and al-Qaeda, adding that administration officials relied on evidence provided by Laurie Mylroie in her book The War Against America: Saddam Hussein and the World Trade Center Attacks: A Study of Revenge. “From her book,” he said, “It was evident she hadn’t spent one day in the Middle East but she was close with Wolfowitz and as a result we had a guy on staff [at the DIA] whose job for two years was to debunk her allegations.”

The lieutenant-colonel maintained that the civilian staff of CPA, drawn from the State Department, were ineffective in Iraq. “The State Department just generates public policy papers,” he said, “they don’t do anything, they don’t run organizations.” He cited a recent CPA talking point that it would be run and structured like an embassy, “but embassies preserve the status quo, they don’t do anything, we are creating a revolution. Military officers are used to managing organizations and know they have to deal with everybody from top to bottom, but the State Department trains policy makers and they don’t want to hear stuff they disagree with.”

He added finally that Iraqis are ill informed about what the CPA does do because “CPA public affairs pay more attention to the foreign press then the local Iraqi press. English is a problem. Also they are used to a standard press conference and then send press releases that nobody reads. Even if Iraqi papers can find the numbers for CPA, nobody returns their calls.”

The 30-year veteran also confirms language difficulties in Iraq. “The entire government was unprepared for 9/11 [September 11] and for Iraq in terms of linguists and interrogators.”

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Can Iranian Missiles Reach Europe

July 16th, 2008 | No Comments | Posted in Military, Security

iranian presidentWASHINGTON — The Pentagon said on Tuesday that Iran has the ability to launch a ballistic missile capable of hitting sections of eastern and southern Europe.

Air Force Lt. Gen. Trey Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, told reporters he believes Iran now has a missile with a range of 1,250 miles, but he declined to say whether the weapon has been test-fired.

Iran said last week it conducted two missile tests involving a number of weapons including what Iranian state television called a “new” Shahab-3 missile, a medium-range missile that could be used to strike Israel.

Tensions over Iran’s missile arsenal and accusations from the United States and its allies that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons have roiled international financial markets with fears of a possible military confrontation.

Iran denies it wants nuclear weapons and says its nuclear program is designed to produce electricity to increase its output of oil and natural gas.

Older versions of the Shahab-3 have an 800-mile (1,300-km) range. But a new extended version is believed to have a range of up to 1,250 miles, making it capable of hitting targets as far away as Greece, Serbia, Romania and Belarus.

Iran is also developing a solid-fuel missile known as the Ashura with a range of 1,250 miles, according to the Pentagon.

U.S. officials and independent missile experts have said last week’s tests involved no new or enhanced technology, or even the latest generations of missiles known to be in Iran’s arsenal.

Obering did not dispute those assertions in a briefing for Pentagon officials on Tuesday.

But his description of Iran’s missile capability was stronger than what U.S. officials have said up to now.

“The Iranians themselves are describing … a 2,000-km range missile launch,” Obering said of last week’s tests, adding that Iran also claimed to have such a missile in November.

“I believe, based on what I have seen, that they have the ability to do that and to continue to advance in the future, based on what I have seen so far from those (Iranian state media) reports and from the intelligence reports,” he added.

“I won’t go into detail as to what was fired when. That’s something I think the intel community should answer,” he said.

The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, which monitors major weapons threats to the United States and its allies, was more vague in its February 27 testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“Iran continues to develop and acquire ballistic missiles that can hit Israel and central Europe, including Iranian claims of an extended-range variant of the Shahab-3 and a new 2,000-km medium range ballistic missile called the Ashura,” DIA director Army Lt. Gen. Michael Maples told the panel.

U.S. officials and analysts dismissed last week’s missile tests as an angry Iranian response to recent military exercises including an Israeli air exercise in June that some have called a rehearsal for an attack on Iran.

The Bush administration has used concern about Iranian missiles to press forward with plans for a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, capable of protecting both Europe and the United States from attack.

Washington and the Czech Republic signed an agreement last week to place missile-tracking radar on Czech soil. U.S. officials are now hoping for a deal to station the system’s interceptor missiles in Poland.

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Military wants Internet patrol

July 11th, 2008 | No Comments | Posted in Intelligence, Military

Information Awareness

You would have figured that the NSA and its far reaching Echelon System would have already been covering these bases, not to mention the Air Force and It’s new cyberwarfre and information awareness branch.

In a solicitation posted on the Web last week, the U.S. Army’s Fifth Signal Command in Mannheim, Germany said it was looking for a contractor to provide “Internet awareness services” to support “force protection” — a term relating to the security of U.S. military installations and personnel.

Although this approach seems a little different in contrast to the “private” information that the NSA makes itself privy to, this method will use a private contractor to troll certain “types” of websites and chat rooms (including Usenet), which are all in the public domain, which would supposedly add another dimension of security apparently not covered elsewhere.

If that is true, I have to ask the question, what has the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) been up to lately?
It just seems to me that there will be, and already is a lot of “Overlap Cost”, Although the following statement by a similar web information analyst would appear to refute the concern of “Overlap”

Experts say Islamic extremist groups like al-Qaida use the Web for propaganda and fundraising purposes. Although the extent to which it is employed in operational planning is less clear, most agree that important information about targeting and tactics can be gleaned from extremists’ public pronouncements.

Hembrook said the main purpose of the contract is to analyze “trends in information.” The contractor will “help us find those needles in that haystack of information.”

The solicitor says the contractor’s team will include a “principal cyber investigator,” a “locally specialized threat analyst” and a “foreign-speaking analyst with cyber investigative skills,” as well as a 24/7 watch team.

The contractor will produce weekly written reports, containing “raw data and supporting analysis.”

The addresses of the Web page sources will be “captioned under alias to preserve access,” says the solicitation. Experts have noted in the past that publishing the addresses of some extremists’ sites has led to them being attacked or moving. However, the contractor will “consider releasing specific (Web page addresses) on an as-needed basis … if explicit threat materials or imminent threat to personnel or facilities are discovered.”

The contractor also will notify the command immediately “upon receipt of any and all stated or implied threats that contain timing and/or targeting information relating to personnel, facilities or activities, and to specifically designated areas of concern.”

While declining to comment on the specific solicitation, Ben Venzke, CEO of IntelCenter, an Alexandria, Va.-based company that monitors Islamic extremist propaganda for clients including U.S. government agencies, said it was “common” for the military or other agencies to employ contractors “to support their own work on these issues.”

“What most people don’t get,” he said, “is that (each agency or entity) has their own very specific requirements. … They are looking for one type of thing in particular.”

Venzke explained that while an analyst for a big-city police department might be looking at extremist Web sites for certain kinds of information, their requirements would be different from those of intelligence analysts looking for evidence of trends in extremist targeting or ideology, which in turn would be different from those concerned — like the Fifth Signal Command — with force protection.

“There is some overlap,” he said, “and you always have to work to minimize that, but generally, there are so many different … pieces you can look at … it’s not duplication.”

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