A ‘Doomsday’ moment will take place in 2014 – and will determine whether the 21st century is full of violence and poverty or will be peaceful and prosperous, according to a Cambridge University professor.
In the last 500 years there has been a cataclysmic ‘Great Event’ of international significance at the start of each century, he claims.
Occurring in the middle of the second decade of each century, they include events which sparked wars, religious conflict and brought peace.
Professor Nicholas Boyle of Cambridge University, who carried out the research, has pinpointed the global financial crisis as the trigger for the next ‘Great Event’.
And he claims the U.S., with its waning economic influence but unrivalled military power, holds the key to determining the course and character of the next 90 years
Professor Boyle said: ‘The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?
Thesis: Professor Nicholas Boyle claims 2014 will mark a significant change in world events
‘Partly the timing has to do with the way we divide our understanding of human life and human history.
‘If a century is going to have a character it is going to become apparent by the time it is approaching 20 years old, the same is true of human beings.
‘Another factor is the sequence of generations. By about two decades in the generation that was really dominant in the last phase of the previous century has had its day.
‘The future is beginning to be defined by their children who will only have lived in or have memories of the new century.’
The professor, who lectures in German and German history, said the recent economic collapse set the wheels in motion of a wider breakdown in international relations.
The U.S., he said, will become the key player in a series of make-or-break decisions and either condemn us to a century of violence and poverty, or usher in a new age of global co-operation.
But he cautioned that peace is only possible if the world realises that an age of individual nation states is over and an effective system of global governance is introduced.
Flashpoints of world politics such as climate change and the rise of China and India, as well as the global credit crisis, will need international co-operation to be resolved, he said.